If there's a player to peg as a true breakout candidate this year -- a guy who's being drafted outside the top-20 at his position but could finish in the top-5 at his position -- it has to be Donte Moncrief.
A lot changed for Moncrief last season when Andrew Luck went down -- he was balling out before Luck's kidney was lacerated. In fact, he was performing at similar levels as teammate T.Y. Hilton.
| With Luck in 2015 | Targets/G | Rec/G | Yards/G | TD/G | FP/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moncrief | 7.71 | 4.57 | 50.14 | 0.71 | 13.87 |
| Hilton | 9.29 | 4.43 | 78.29 | 0.43 | 14.83 |
With Andrew Luck under center, Moncrief averaged more receptions per game than his speedy teammate, and because of his touchdown averages, his fantasy points per game number was less than a point worse than Hilton's.
Moncrief's already getting love from beat writers, as they're talking about him catching more balls than Hilton this year. Why couldn't it happen? As you can see in the table above, it did last year when Luck was healthy.
The other piece to this is that Moncrief clearly profiles as a better red zone pass-catcher. Hilton's 5'10'', 183-pound frame has seen just 9 of his 24 career touchdowns happen from the red zone. Moncrief -- standing at 6'2'' and 221 pounds -- has scored 5 of his 9 career touchdowns from 20 yards out or fewer.
With a little touchdown fortune, Moncrief could push for double-digit scores this year. Even if he doesn't, he should have no trouble outperforming his WR24 pricetag.