Let's say you miss out on Donte Moncrief early but still want a piece of the Colts' passing game. Don't worry because Phillip Dorsett is basically free.
The loss of Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson opens up 161 targets in the Colts' offense entering 2016. And the loss of Fleener specifically allows the Colts to show off more three-wide receiver sets, which now include T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and ya boy Phillip Dorsett.
Over the last four years -- years that Luck has been under center for Indy -- the Colts have dropped back to pass no fewer than 616 times in a single season. Luck had 570 attempts that year, so let's use that as a baseline.
In order for Dorsett to secure 100 targets, he'd need to see 17.5% of the team's targets, which is on the higher-end considering he's the third wideout on the team. But as Anthony Amico pointed out in an article on Dorsett earlier this offseason, that 17.5% number may not be far off. Given the Colts' wide receiver use over the last couple of seasons, a 14% share for Dorsett is very reasonable.
In that case, at the very least, we're looking at 80 targets for a receiver in an Andrew Luck-led offense. But given the Colts are projected to have a bottom-half defense this season, it's hard to envision Luck not hitting the 600 attempt mark if he's healthy. And the higher he goes with his attempt numbers, the more volume a guy like Dorsett could see.
Remember when the Colts drafted Dorsett last year? Remember how everyone said, "What in the world? This is another T.Y. Hilton!" Again, there's the injury upside. I really hate continuing to sound so morbid, but if Hilton were to go down, Dorsett all of a sudden has a larger market share in a pass-first offense with one of the better quarterbacks throwing him the ball. And the Colts may not lose a step.
Dorsett's a perfect late-round passer-catcher in a high-volume offense who should have weekly flex appeal. If the perfect storm hits, though, he could be a real breakout candidate.