I feel like I've been banging the drum on Demaryius Thomas all summer, but it's crazy how late people are able to draft him in fantasy drafts right now at his current ADP of 3.04.
Yes, by comparison to his previous three seasons, Thomas did turn in a down campaign in 2015.
| Season | Receptions | Reception NEP | Targets | Reception NEP per Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 94 | 114.05 | 141 | 0.81 | 66.67% | 81.91% |
| 2013 | 92 | 130.03 | 142 | 0.92 | 64.79% | 93.48% |
| 2014 | 111 | 140.59 | 184 | 0.76 | 60.33% | 88.29% |
| 2015 | 105 | 107.73 | 177 | 0.61 | 59.32% | 81.90% |
Clearly, Thomas was less effective on a per-target basis than he was in years' prior, and his Reception Success Rate took a nosedive from the previous two seasons, as well. A number of outside factors -- off-field issues and contract negotiations -- may have contributed to Thomas' effectiveness and efficiency.
But perhaps what contributed to his ineffectiveness in 2015 more than any other factor was the quarterbacking that afflicted the Denver Broncos' offensive production. As a whole, the Broncos finished the season 26th in total Passing NEP.
And while Mark Sanchez and/or Trevor Siemian might not light the world on fire, they’ll both likely have better arm strength than the 2015 version of Peyton Manning, and will take the field with not much less (in Siemian's case) or much more (in Sanchez's case) experience than Brock Osweiler had during his stretch of starts in 2015. It would take some seriously awful quarterbacking to underperform the Broncos' situation last season.
And let's not kid ourselves, Thomas will still be the focal point of this passing attack. His 177 targets in 2015 were the 12th most in a single season since the turn of the century. And in 8 out of 13 seasons in which Denver coach Gary Kubiak had his No. 1 wide receiver play at least 13 games, said receiver among the top-ten most targeted wideouts in the NFL for that season.
And in all five cases in which they weren't, the number one targeted receiver on his team was at least 32 years of age. Thomas is four years shy of that.
Thomas' "down year" still amounted to the 11th-best PPR wide receiver season in 2015. His focus seems to be back, his touchdowns should regress in a positive direction, and he's still in line to be the target monster of this offense.
Another quality year is coming, and you shouldn't pass up on the opportunity to get a wide receiver in the third round with this kind of upside.