Randall Cobb's 2015 season was disappointing on so many levels. But looking at his career arc, and digging deeper into some of the reasons for his struggles in 2015, it seems very likely that Cobb is a fantastic bounce-back candidate whom you can acquire for a good discount at his current 3.08 ADP.
Believe it or not, before becoming a pariah in the last 13 games of the season, Cobb was actually off to a blazing start, compiling 20 catches for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first three games of the season. In fact, Cobb seemed well on his way to the type of season we’d become accustomed to from him.
| Year | Receptions | Reception NEP | Reception NEP per Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 24 | 31.98 | 1.07 | 80.00% | 91.67% |
| 2012 | 80 | 90.14 | 0.87 | 76.92% | 85.00% |
| 2013 | 31 | 37.42 | 0.80 | 65.96% | 83.87% |
| 2014 | 91 | 119.13 | 0.94 | 71.65% | 89.01% |
| 2015 | 79 | 68.35 | 0.53 | 61.24% | 72.15% |
In each of Cobb's first four seasons in the league, he achieved an efficiency level way above league average, including posting the second-highest Reception NEP per target among receivers targeted at least 100 times in 2014. But in 2015, Cobb was atrociously inefficient, posting career lows in Reception NEP per Target, catch rate and Reception Success Rate, which is the percentage of his receptions that resulted in positive NEP.
So what gives? Well, a number of factors quickly began taking their toll as the 2015 season progressed, rendering Cobb largely ineffective rest of the season.
First, Cobb suffered an AC joint sprain that may have impacted his effectiveness as the season wore on.
Second, and most importantly, defenses quickly became wise to the shortcomings of the Packers’ offense sans Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the preseason. A look at Rotoviz’s Game Splits app showing Cobb's performance since 2013 with and without Nelson on the field shows how dependent Cobb's production is on Nelson's field-stretching acumen.
Cobb wasn't the only one hurt by Nelson's absence. In fact -- and this is truly hard to believe -- but out of the 25 quarterbacks with at least 400 drop backs last year, Aaron Rodgers finished 23rd in Passing NEP per drop back. Since 2009, Rodgers had never finished out of the top 10 in that metric in any season in which he had 400 drop backs.
With an offensive line that finished 23rd in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, Rodgers didn't have much time to throw the ball, and he didn't have an effective running game to keep defenses honest thanks to Eddie Lacy's, um, conditioning issues.
But with Lacy hitting the P90X hard in the offseason and looking good in the preseason thus far, and Nelson back and set to be ready for the season opener, the dynamic Packers' offense should be back to form in short order. Grab Cobb at his late-3rd round discount and reap all of the fantasy goodness it should deliver.