Ryan Tannehill was everyone's favorite quarterback sleeper in 2015, being drafted as the QB12 (ahead of Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer) due to his dual threat ability and the fact that the (presumably) transcendent talent had finished as the QB13 in points per game in 2014. The weapons around him had only improved with the additions of Jordan Cameron and DeVante Parker, and a top-six season was in the cards!
But it never materialized, and coach Joe Philbin was fired midseason, further stunting Tannehill's development. The inefficiency was easy to see. If you dropped back to pass more than Teddy Bridgewater (491 times), you were more effective than Tannehill, whose 0.05 Passing NEP per drop back was on par with the battered Matt Hasselbeck. His rushing total dropped from 311 yards in 2014 to just 141 in 2015, and the breakout season never materialized.
And that has caused Tannehill to fall in ADP from top-12 last season, to 22nd this summer, behind players such as Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Dak Prescott. While it's possible that we have seen the best from Tannehill and that he has hit his ceiling as a player, at that price, he's easily worth the gamble despite what the metrics say.
For starters, his numbers really didn't change all that much last year, outside of the rushing totals and completion percentage (61.9% in 2015 as opposed to 66.4% in 2014):
| Year | Pass Attempts | Passing Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 588 | 3913 | 24 | 17 |
| 2014 | 590 | 4045 | 27 | 12 |
| 2015 | 586 | 4208 | 24 | 12 |
Tannehill has been remarkably stagnant, which is one of the main reasons Joe Philbin was fired. But to say that Tannehill has been ineffective as a fantasy producer just isn't really accurate.
In 2016, you could argue that the weapons and offensive line have only improved, although it remains to be seen if the move away from Lamar Miller and to the Arian Foster and Jay Ajayi combo will be a mistake. New head coach Adam Gase has a reputation for maximizing quarterback play, and he worked wonders with another dead man walking quarterback last year in Jay Cutler. He also coached Peyton Manning to historic success in 2013 and 2014.
In addition to more effective coaching, the team seems interested in using Kenny Stills, the most efficient receiver on a per-target basis in the NFL during his 2013 and 2014 run with the Saints. The Dolphins also drafted Leonte Carroo and a top offensive lineman in Laremy Tunsil and have a (more) healthy DeVante Parker.
If Gase can even coax modest improvement out of Tannehill or improve his rushing numbers, he will provide a significant return on investment at his current price. But should Gase work even more magic, perhaps that elusive Tannehill breakout season will just occur a year later than people guessed.