Who doesn't love a little dance with the devil in DFS? The Baltimore Ravens' market share outlook is about as grim as humanly possible, and we'll need some dirty dealing if we want to figure this puppy out. There's just too much upside to completely ignore it.
Last week, the Cleveland Browns' defense allowed a rookie quarterback who had never played a Division-I game and missed almost the entire preseason to finish as the 11th-most efficient quarterback, per numberFire's metrics. That should tell you a thing or two about them, and neither of said things should be glowing endorsements. They are bad, and we're going to be looking to exploit them every week the rest of the season.
The other thing working in Baltimore's favor is that the Browns -- for whatever reason -- had the fastest offensive pace of any team in football in Week 1. They ran one play every 24.8 seconds, even beating out Chip Kelly's San Francisco 49ers, who ran one play every 25.1 seconds. The Buffalo Bills -- the Ravens' Week 1 opponent -- had the slowest pace of the week. This is a huge value boost for Baltimore.
This is even before we consider the fact that Joe Flacco has been a super fun fantasy asset recently. With the increased presence of the passing game, Flacco's fantasy relevancy has shot up. Flacco was a top-12 scorer at the position in five of his 10 games last year, giving him as many top-12 finishes as Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota and more than Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan. He was really solid before his injury last year, and the team has added a healthy Steve Smith back into the fold along with Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman. There's a ton to love in this offense.
Then we get to with whom you should pair Flacco as part of a stack. Nobody wants a naked Flacco, so you're going to have to choose one of these pups, even if that process isn't necessarily gratifying.
The best selection here may actually be tight end Dennis Pitta. Pitta was the only skill-position player on offense who was on the field for at least 70% of the snaps in Week 1, and he was there a whopping 82% of the time. Now, they're facing a faster-paced opponent, meaning that higher snap rate is even more valuable. The Browns allowed Zach Ertz to notch 6 receptions on 7 targets for 58 yards last week, so they don't seem prohibitive against the position, putting Pitta in play for a low price.
The wide receivers are more difficult. You could go Smith, who led the team in targets with 9, but those 9 targets resulted in a grandiose 19 yards. Then there's Wallace, who played one fewer snap than Smith and saw three fewer targets, but still hauled in a long touchdown. Which way is more desirable?
This would seem to favor Wallace, though not by much. Smith -- despite the targets -- is yet to prove that he's the Steve Smith of old, rather than the old Steve Smith. If his efficiency doesn't increase, it wouldn't be shocking to see the team reduce his target market share (a la Andre Johnson with the Indianapolis Colts last year). Wallace proved he can at least do something last week, which has value, even if touchdowns are fluky. This is -- again -- why Pitta may be the best outlet, even if nothing here is fully safe.