It seems we've all forgotten how damn good Philip Rivers is at football.
Everywhere you look this week, you're seeing splits about how the San Diego Chargers performed last year with and without Keenan Allen. It's a fair question to ask, given his role in the offense and general Gucciness. Now that Allen's on injured reserve, the public has abandoned hope that the offense can feast in 2016. It's possible that this happens, but there's also a ton of noise in Rivers' 2015 splits without Allen for which people are not accounting.
First is the schedule. In the first eight weeks (when Allen was healthy), the Chargers did not play a single team ranked higher than ninth in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Their schedule was back-loaded, forcing them to face both the Denver Broncos (first in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play) and Kansas City Chiefs (fourth) twice over their final eight games, and there weren't many quarterbacks who succeeded against those two last year. That's four games against top-five defenses, accounting for half of Rivers' split without Allen. Can you see now why this is an incomplete picture?
None of this would matter if Rivers didn't perform well against the other competition he faced. If Rivers struggled with his efficiency against other pass defenses, then we could return to our pessimistic views of the offense. That didn't happen, though, as you can see in the table below which compares Rivers against non-top five defenses with and without Allen. Success Rate is the percentage of plays on which the player improves the team's NEP.
| Versus Non-Top Five Defenses | Drop Backs | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| With Keenan Allen | 372 | 0.23 | 54.3% |
| Without Keenan Allen | 172 | 0.26 | 60.5% |
Not only was Rivers competent without Allen, but his efficiency metrics actually improved slightly. Allen doesn't make Rivers a great quarterback; that's just what Rivers is.
This is all before we consider the second reason that those splits without Allen are dirty, and that's the offensive line. The line's health deteriorated throughout the season last year, and they were in shambles by the time Allen exited the lineup. We almost can't look at any of the Chargers' 2015 numbers because of this, and Rivers' second-half metrics take the full brunt of everything. This is why we should still be buying into the Chargers' offense without Allen.
All of this is before we even mention their matchup this week with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars finished last year 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, which is bad to begin with. Then you look at their home/road splits, and you basically just want to vomit all over the screen.
| Venue | Drop Backs | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 314 | 0.04 | 48.40% |
| Road | 291 | 0.35 | 54.60% |
For some context, Andy Dalton led the league in Passing NEP per drop back last year at 0.35, meaning quarterbacks at home against the Jaguars last year were the most efficient passers in the sport. The Jags are not good.
What's even better about this? Rivers faced these Jaguars in Jacksonville last year after Allen's injury. He promptly scored 28.9 points per FanDuel's scoring rules, notching 300 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Pair him with Travis Benjamin or Antonio Gates as part of a tournament stack, build from there, and hope the more telling trends from last year translate into 2016.