Over/Under: 41.5
Patriots Implied Team Total: 24.00
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 17.50
This game has one of the lowest over/unders on the slate, so we won't waste time over-analyzing it. There's one play that sticks out from a game script perspective, but it is a very game script dependent play, so it's worth examining.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $6,000
LeGarrette Blount and the New England Patriots are heavy favorites against the Miami Dolphins, and despite the game's low over/under, their implied team total is in the top-10 this week. If you've played DFS for long, you realize the potential that Blount carries if you are able to predict when New England will take an early lead. If you're unfamiliar, here are his splits since the beginning of last season in games that New England was favored by at least 6.5 points.
In a matchup against Miami's defense, which allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2015, Blount should have no trouble finding room to run this week. With New England listed as heavy favorites, a scenario in which Blount is leaned upon heavily in the second half is very feasible.
New England D/ST
FanDuel Price: $4,500
If the game script holds true that New England will be playing with a big lead, that likely means that their defense is keeping Miami from scoring. Also, if they score a defensive or special teams touchdown, that helps aid the game script needed for Blount to get heavy usage, making a Blount-New England D/ST pairing a highly-correlated stack based on game script.