Over/Under: 48.0
Packers Implied Team Total: 27.75
Lions Implied Team Total: 20.25
This game's 48-point over/under comes in as the second-highest on the slate, while the Green Bay Packers currently sit on the highest implied team total on the slate.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Price: $8,900
Aaron Rodgers has struggled this season, but he gets to return to Lambeau this week, where he has averaged 47 more passing yards and a touchdown more per game over the past three seasons. In games he has played with Jordy Nelson at home over that span, he has averaged 292 passing yards and 3.1 touchdowns per game. In home games that he's had Jordy and at least a 48-point over/under, those averages have jumped up to an obscene 321 yards and 3.4 touchdowns per game, good for 28.5 FanDuel points per game, according to the Rotoviz Game Splits App. Not too shabby.
To make this week's get-right game potential even more likely, Rodgers will face a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They've allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing passers this season, allowing Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota to combine for 623 yards and 6 touchdowns against them.
Maybe the most efficient quarterback of all time has fallen off a cliff at the age of 32, but it seems far more likely that he is in store for a bounce-back, and this game seems like the perfect opportunity for it.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Price: $7,300
Eddie Lacy has also started the season a little slow, but if history is any indication, he is in a great spot for a big game too. As hit on with Gore, running backs traditionally fare much better when favored, so Foster's career splits should come as no surprise. Per the Rotoviz Game Splits App, in 13 career games as at least 7.5-point favorites, Lacy has averaged 3.3 more carries, 24.6 more yards, and 3.7 more FanDuel points than in 35 other career games. In games in which the Packers were at least 7.5-point favorites with at least a 48-point over/under, Lacy has seen his FanDuel average jump even higher, to 17.1 points per game.
The matchup is great for Lacy as well, as Detroit currently ranks 30th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play on the year. The Lions have also given up 5.1 yards per carry so far this season, which is highest mark in the NFL.
The potential is there for a huge game from Lacy, especially if Green Bay is playing with a lead, as they are projected to. As proven by Raybon, quarterback-running back actually has some positive correlation too, so don't feel afraid to stack Rodgers and Lacy if you're in love with both plays.
Others to Consider
If expecting a big game from A-Rod, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb should be expected to have productive Sundays as well. Nelson led the Pack in receiving last week and is reportedly feeling better with each week. Both receivers are in play this weekend.
While the Packers are the more attractive team on paper, the fantasy goodness isn't reserved to just the Cheeseheads in this game. Top corner Sam Shields is out this week, which should open things up a bit for Marvin Jones, who has looked every bit the part of Detroit's number-one receiver so far. Don't look now, but pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick is in the top-10 in running back scoring on FanDuel this season. With Ameer Abdullah out, Riddick is set to be the lead back for Detroit this weekend. With Detroit likely playing from behind, Riddick could be heavily targeted, making him an interesting tournament play.