Is it possible to have a post-hype sleeper as early as Week 3? Because that feels like what we have with Dak Prescott. Lauded for an incredible preseason, he was thrust into a starting role when Tony Romo went down with an injury, but he is only the QB23 so far.

What's holding back Prescott's fantasy numbers is the fact that he has yet to throw for a touchdown, which isn't something that is likely to continue for long. The league average for touchdown rate on red zone pass attempts in 2015 was 23%, and Prescott is tied for 10th among quarterbacks this season with 6 red zone pass attempts per game. He doesn't even need to be a league-average quarterback to be due for some serious regression in those touchdown numbers.

Prescott draws a good matchup this week as the Dallas Cowboys have a solid implied total of 25.75 against the Chicago Bears. Chicago's pass defense has been middle of the road, according to our metrics, and they just lost their best pass rusher, Lamarr Houston, to an ACL tear.