The Denver Broncos head east to play the Cincinnati Bengals in a game with the second-lowest total (41.5) on the Sunday main slate.

So far in 2016, Demaryius Thomas has generated 12.10 Reception NEP, which ranks 31st. He's not doing terrible, but his price on FanDuel isn't in line with his current production. Marvin Jones, Sterling Shepard and Michael Crabtree have each put up better Reception NEP numbers and are priced less than Thomas this week.

Thomas' 0.931 Reception NEP per target is not nearly as efficient as the league leaders on a per target basis up to this point. Willie Snead is the current leader among players who have seen at least 10 targets with a clip of 1.479. Stefon Diggs currently has a 1.265 Reception NEP per target, and he's priced $800 less than Thomas this week.

As the low over/under suggests, this game just smells like a defensive slugfest. The last time Thomas played in game with an over/under of 42 or less with a salary in this price range (vs. Carolina in Week 1), he totaled less than 9 FanDuel points.

The Bengals have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards (275), and the 10th-fewest FanDuel points per game (25.1) to wide receivers this season.