Lamar Miller's not out of mind due to a bye week; he's just fallen off the fantasy map the past few games.
Miller got the season off to a solid start by rushing 28 times for 106 yards in the opener, and he rushed for at least 80 yards in each of the first four games. But he's yet to find the end zone on 101 rushes and 17 targets, and his carry total has declined in every game. This is how you build confidence in the masses, ladies and gents.
All of these factors combine to make Miller appear as if he's a risky fantasy asset this week. That's exactly why we'll want to invest.
It turns out that it's hard to draw conclusions from a five-game sample. Miller has faced three teams in the top 12 in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, which helps explain his 3.7 yards per carry average. Once you qualify for the schedule, the Houston Texans jump up to 24th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. It's not great, but it's better than the dumpster-fire appearance on the surface, and it should be better going forward thanks to the return of left tackle Duane Brown.
Brown missed the first four games of the season following an injury he suffered at the end of 2015. The only game Brown has played this year came against the Minnesota Vikings' soul-sucking defense. When we look at how Miller has performed this year by rushing direction, it's clear Brown was missed. Success Rate measures the percentage of carries that result in positive NEP.
| Direction | Rushes | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 19 | 26.32% |
| Middle | 43 | 39.53% |
| Right | 29 | 34.48% |
For some context on that low Success Rate to the left, the league-average Success Rate for backs with at least 35 carries is 39.7%, and the minimum is 24.6%. Miller has essentially been the worst back in the league while rushing left, but we should expect that to improve with Brown back and ready to roll.
This is all before we discuss the matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. Much of the focus has been on the health of their secondary, but they enter this game ranked 30th against the rush for the season. They've allowed an opposing running back to finish in the top 16 in weekly scoring at the position in every game, and that includes two top-10 performers in Week 1 alone. This is not a good defense, and it's one that Miller can exploit.
Despite the juicy matchup, Miller won't come with crippling ownership this week. He's $200 more expensive than Jordan Howard, who has gashed defenses the past two weeks, and guys like DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy are in tremendous matchups. Miller's struggles don't appear to be permanent, and in a matchup like this, we'll want to dive on in before he fully rebounds.