FanDuel Price: $8,600
Andrew Luck has the fifth-highest salary among quarterbacks on FanDuel this week. According to our projections, his 2.26 FanDuel value is the 9th-lowest score among the 10 highest-priced quarterbacks this week.
Luck will be playing on the road for the third time in 2016. In his first two games away from Lucas Oil Stadium this year, he has averaged just 14.9 FanDuel points per game. He's also playing as an underdog. In Luck's last four games as a road underdog, he's averaged 14.98 FanDuel points per game. He scored less than 12 FanDuel points in two of those games.
Luck's Passing NEP this season ranks him 19th among the 30 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes. His Passing NEP per drop back is slightly less efficient, ranking 20th among that same group.
This week, he gets to face a Houston Texans defense that ranks fourth in our Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP metric. The Texans have allowed the fewest passing yards (707), touchdowns (1) and FanDuel points per game (10.1) to quarterbacks this season.
Throw in the fact that the Indianapolis Colts offensive line is still pretty bad, and you've got yourself a problem.
Given his historical data and this week's opponent, leaving Luck out of the equation this week would be a prudent decision.