Over/Under: 46.5
49ers Implied Team Total: 22.25
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 24.25
It's normally fun to watch your players play on Sunday, but if you're loading up on players from this game, you might want to make some Sunday afternoon plans to avoid watching the mess of a game that this is sure to be. If you can avoid watching this matchup between the 1-5 San Francisco 49ers and the 2-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers though, there might actually be some sneaky fantasy goodness to take away from it.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $5,600
No running back saw a larger workload than Jacquizz Rodgers last week, who was in for 93 percent of the offensive snaps and handled 35 touches. Rodgers was also the most heavily Bucs targeted player other than Mike Evans. With Charles Sims on injured reserve and Doug Martin without a timetable for return following a setback, Rodgers should again profile as a bell-cow running back this week against the 49ers.
San Francisco ranks seventh-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play this season, while also allowing a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry. They've allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season and are fresh off of allowing the Buffalo Bills backs to pile up 228 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns against them.
San Fran has been respectable against the pass this season too, ranking 10th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, which has caused opponents to funnel their offenses to more run-heavy approaches. Combine that with the fact that Tampa Bay is favored in this one, and it isn't hard to envision a scenario in which Rodgers gets fed 20-plus carries in this game.
Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $5,600
I thought the whole point of playing daily fantasy was so you didn't have to roster players like Torrey Smith and Jacquizz Rodgers. However, the two are in such perfect spots this week that it's hard to ignore. Smith shined in his first game with Colin Kaepernick back at the helm last week, finishing with 76 yards and a score. Say what you will about Kaepernick, but he at least is willing to take deep shots to Smith, unlike Blaine Gabbert. Smith has averaged 1.8 more FanDuel points per game with Kaepernick than Gabbert since the beginning of last season.
Smith will take on a Tampa Bay secondary that ranks eighth-worst according to our metrics and has been very susceptible to the big play this season. No defense has allowed more yards per catch than the Bucs, who also have allowed the third-most catches of 20- and 40-plus yards on a per-game basis. In just five games, they've already allowed 14-plus FanDuel points to Mohamed Sanu, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Tavon Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demaryius Thomas.
If game script holds up, San Francisco will be trailing in a back-and-forth affair between two sub-par defenses, which sets up very well for a huge game from their big-play threat against Tampa Bay's weak secondary. Smith is an excellent high-upside tournament dart throw, and he pairs very well with Rodgers from a game script perspective.
Others to Consider
It's impossible to discuss this game without giving some attention to Mike Evans, who has averaged 13.8 targets over his past four games and has just one game with below 16 FanDuel points this season. His price tag ($8,000) is tough to fit in this week, but he could be worth every penny against San Fran's secondary that was thrashed by fellow 6'5" third-year receiver Kelvin Benjamin for 108 yards and 2 scores earlier this season. With Vincent Jackson on injured reserve, things look even better for Evans, who has averaged 3.7 more targets and 37 more yards without Jackson in his career.