Over/Under: 52.5
Falcons Implied Team Total: 27.50
Chargers Implied Team Total: 25.00
This matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers offers some of the most exciting shootout potential on the slate, as it features the highest over/under as well as two of the top six implied team totals. It's also a big pace-up game for the Packers, as the Falcons have seen their opponents play at the second-fastest pace in the league on a per-play basis, and their games have featured the sixth-most total plays between the two teams.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $8,500
This season's FanDuel points leader, Matt Ryan, returns home for this game, where he has averaged 305 passing yards, 1.74 passing touchdowns, and 19.3 FanDuel points, as opposed to 282 yards, 1.57 touchdowns, and 17.5 FanDuel points on the road since 2013. Ryan has also performed much better in shootouts during that span, averaging 334 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 22.18 FanDuel points in games in which Julio Jones has played and there was at least a 50-point over/under, per the RotoViz Game Splits App.
In addition to having game script in his favor, Ryan has a terrific matchup against Green Bay's funnel-defense. Green Bay has allowed a league-low 3.1 rushing yards per attempt this season but ranks 26th in passing yards per attempt allowed. To make the matchup even sweeter, Green Bay will likely be without starting cornerbacks Sam Shields, who was placed on injured reserve, and Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins, who missed practice Thursday, for this game.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $9,200
Julio Jones posted back-to-back big performances for the first time all year, following up a 23.4-point FanDuel performance with 21.9 more FanDuel points last week. Over his last four games, his average line is 7.5 catches on 11.3 targets for 161 yards and 0.5 touchdowns, with 15 targets in two of those games.
Similar to Matty-Ice, history favors Jones in this game script. In 21 home games since the beginning of 2013, Julio has averaged 124 receiving yards and 0.52 touchdowns, as opposed to 103 yards and 0.41 touchdowns on the road. He has also performed much better in shootouts during that span, averaging 8.2 catches for 134 yards in games in which there was at least a 50-point over/under.
Jones should feast on Green Bay's decimated secondary, and a Ryan-Jones stack carries immense potential given the 52.5-point over/under.
Others to Consider
Devonta Freeman is the only other Atlanta player worth giving serious consideration to. The Falcons will almost certainly be playing without Tevin Coleman in this one, which should leave Freeman in a bell-cow role. In case you forgot, here are Freeman's splits with and without Coleman over the past two seasons, per the RotoViz Game Splits App.
In addition to the lion's share of work, Freeman should benefit from a terrific game script. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs." Also, while Green Bay has been terrific against the run this season, they have been gashed for 229 yards on a 4.8 per attempt average by opposing backs over the past two weeks.
If looking for a true game stack, the other side of the ball features some fun options as well. Aaron Rodgers looked much better in his most recent game, posting 326 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, and he draws a matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers has attempted 98 total passes over the past two games, and could be looking at tremendous volume once again with Eddie Lacy and James Starks out and Green Bay projected to be trailing in a shootout.
Ty Montgomery has been moved to running back on FanDuel, which is where he has spent the majority of snaps over the past two weeks. His versatile skill-set and knowledge of Green Bay's offense has provided him with a huge-usage role in their offense, as he has 20 catches on 25 targets for 164 receiving yards, as well as 12 carries for 66 yards over the past two games. Both Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have stepped up their play over the past few weeks and are worth a look, as Jordy Nelson figures to be the one dealing with the coverage of Desmond Trufant for most of the day.