It should be noted here that the Houston Texans' passing offense (specifically DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and C.J. Fiedorowicz) are all intriguing this week, especially if Darius Slay can't go due to injury. But because I'd like to maintain my sanity and not attach my well-being to the right arm of Brock Osweiler, let's discuss why Lamar Miller's price of $7,400 on FanDuel should get your loins all tingly.
This won't come as a shock to legitimately anybody, but the return of left tackle Duane Brown has been huge for the Houston offense, especially Miller. We discussed back in Week 6 how much Miller had struggled while running left with Brown out of the lineup. With now a three-game sample to peep, it would appear Brown's return in Week 5 has cured those ills. The table below compares how Miller has fared rushing left with and without Brown through the eyes of numberFire's metrics.
| While Rushing Left | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Without Brown | -1.22 | -0.07 | 29.40% |
| With Brown | 6.84 | 0.46 | 53.30% |
Over the past two weeks, Miller has turned 13 carries to the left into 129 yards, and 8 of those 13 carries (61.5%) have increased the team's expected points for the drive. Yeah, offensive line health matters.
This obviously means that Miller is a better fantasy running back now than he was earlier in the season, but it also puts him in position to kick some tail against the Detroit Lions.
While the Texans have been excelling when running left since Brown's return, that's a bit of a sore spot for the Lions. All running backs to face them this year have combined for 0.01 Rushing NEP per carry while going left and a 49.1% Success Rate, a heavy deviation from the league-wide Success Rate of 41.4% for running backs. If Miller can succeed going left against the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos, he can do so against the Lions.
Rushing has also been a bit of a broader issue for Detroit. They rank 27th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. Part of that stems from two games without defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who was able to practice Wednesday and figures to return to the field in Week 8, but the team had its issues even before he went down. Three backs have rushed for at least 89 yards against the Lions this year, and all three came while Ngata was healthy.
The final reason to adore Miller this week involves a bit of game theory. Spencer Ware has gone bananas the past two weeks and is in a dream matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. He's the exact same price as Miller. That should drag at least some ownership away from Miller, further incentivizing investment into this saucy individual.