numberFire's Jim Sannes wrote a fantastic article in January on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on teams that are heavily favored, with implied team total as the tiebreaker.
In Week 9, we are targeting kicker Mason Crosby of the Green Bay Packers because the Packers are favored to win by 7.5 points, which is tied for the highest spread of the week.
Green Bay also has the highest implied total of the week at 30.5 points. Sannes found that kickers playing on a team with an implied total of 30 or higher went on to score an absurd average of 10.64 fantasy points per game from 2012 to 2014.
Another favorable trend is that the Packers play at Lambeau Field, where Crosby has done better in his career. According to Pro Football Reference, Crosby has scored 636 career points in 76 home games. To put that into perspective, in 75 away games, Crosby scored only 565 points.
Crosby, who has the upside of a top kicker, only costs $4,700 on FanDuel, which is $200 more than the minimum, making him a nice plug-and-play option for those who want to spend up at other positions.