In cash games, I'm trying to pair David Johnson with Le'Veon Bell wherever I can. Nobody touches Bell's receiving floor, and his declining price makes him all the more attractive. But from a tournament perspective, it's hard not to be intrigued by Lamar Miller.
Miller and the Houston Texans are on the road this week to battle the Jacksonville Jaguars, and they enter the game as 1.5-point favorites. You know the Texans aren't looking to make Brock Osweiler a high-volume chucker, so if they can keep this puppy close -- which Vegas says they should -- Miller's getting the rock with regularity.
When he does, he should be able to make inroads against this Jacksonville defense. They rank 31st against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics, besting only those 49ers that Johnson will face. Every running back with at least 15 carries against the Jaguars has found the end zone, and Miller has exceeded that mark in six of eight games this year.
Overall, Miller certainly hasn't been the league's most efficient runner in his first season with the Texans. He ranks 29th in Rushing NEP per carry of the 38 running backs with at least 60 attempts, and he is 28th in Success Rate. As mentioned seemingly ad nauseam, though, we have to remember that left tackle Duane Brown missed those first four games, and it showed through in Miller's performance.
This table shows Miller's efficiency splits without Brown and since his return. Some injuries and blowouts have masked this from a fantasy perspective, but Brown's presence makes this team radically different.
| Time Frame | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 4 Games | 87 | -9.39 | -0.11 | 34.48% |
| Past 4 Games | 60 | 3.23 | 0.05 | 43.33% |
You're putting this highly-efficient version of Miller up against one of the league's worst rush defenses. It may not be as appealing as Johnson or Bell, but this situation is up there.
The one thing we will have to monitor throughout the week is Miller's health. Miller was limited in practice Wednesday while still dealing with his bum shoulder. This injury held him to a 49.3% snap rate in Week 8, and we'd love to see him get in a full practice by the end of the week. If he can, he will shoot to near the top of the list of guys to pair with Johnson, even if it does mean you're tying heavy salary into the running-back position.