Remember back on the first Monday of the season when Kirk Cousins looked like straight trash against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Dude threw two picks and missed wide on just about every throw. It was frightening.
He's put that nonsense in the rearview mirror.
Over the past three games, Cousins has been absolutely scorching hot. He hasn't racked up fewer than 12.46 Passing NEP in any single game, a mark he hit just once the first six games. His numbers when clumped together are jaw-dropping.
| Time Frame | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 6 Games | 234 | 40.13 | 0.17 | 54.70% |
| Past 3 Games | 132 | 47.77 | 0.36 | 54.55% |
Overall, Cousins sits fifth in Passing NEP per drop back. If we were to use just his numbers over the past three games, the only guy ahead of him would be Tom Brady. It's time to accept that Cousins might actually be really good at this quarterback thing.
Along with all of that nastiness, you're getting him in a good matchup this week. Washington will face the Green Bay Packers, who currently sit 24th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. Each of the past three quarterbacks to face them has thrown for at least 288 yards, and they have combined for eight touchdowns to two interceptions. Only one of those passers -- Matt Ryan -- has been as efficient as Cousins this year.
This is one of many spots this week where you'll have to keep an eye on the weather. The current projected wind speeds are at 10 miles per hour, something we could accept. But if it were to creep any higher, we may want to consider looking elsewhere.
Assuming things stay within the comfort zone, Jordan Reed would be a fun target to stack with Cousins. He has at least 10 targets in four of his eight games this year, and Week 10 was the first time he was below seven targets. He still played 79.4% of the snaps in that game, so there shouldn't be any lingering concerns about plugging him in for Week 11.
Reed also checks the boxes we look for in a tight end. He's at home on a team with a high implied team total -- Washington's mark of 26.5 is the fifth-highest on the main slate -- and the matchup is delectable. The Packers have allowed 647 receiving yards to tight ends, according to FFToday, the fourth-highest mark in the league. That has led to only four touchdowns thus far, but with Reed's involvement in the offense, that number could easily rise on Sunday.
The wide receivers are a bit harder to decipher, especially with DeSean Jackson returning to practice on Wednesday. If he were to sit, it would put both Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon in play. Even if Jackson does suit up, you could make a decent case for Crowder.
With Jackson active in Week 8 (though he did miss snaps due to an injury), Crowder had 13 targets. He also had nine in Week 7 when Jackson was fully healthy. His price is low enough where a little risk isn't detrimental, and he's got enough upside to warrant a look.