Remember last year, when the Seattle Seahawks went on a scorched-Earth campaign that left all opponents gawking and those who invested in them in DFS swimming in cash?
Yeah. It's happening again.
Over his past three games, Russell Wilson has more Passing NEP than he had the first seven games combined. It may have taken a while, but the Russ we came to love his first four years in the league appears to be fully back.
| Time Frame | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP/ Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 7 Games | 249 | 35.50 | 0.14 | 50.60% |
| Past 3 Games | 102 | 43.07 | 0.42 | 53.92% |
That mark of 0.42 Passing NEP per drop back would rank second in the league behind just Tom Brady if extrapolated over the entire season. And it's not as if Wilson is gashing unworthy foes. Each of the three defenses in that span ranks 16th or better in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back, including the 2nd-ranked Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. He's just that good right now.
Wilson's matchup will ease up a bit in Week 12, and it may be even better than it appears on paper. The opposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 19th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. That, in itself, isn't terrible. How they've fared against competent quarterbacks is.
The Bucs have played just five games this year against quarterbacks who currently rank 23rd or better in Passing NEP per drop back. Yes, of their 10 games, only half have come against quarterbacks who are not awful. The only quarterback in that sample to throw for fewer than 300 yards was Alex Smith, and the efficiency of those guys is jaw-dropping.
| Split | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP/ Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-23 Quarterback | 201 | 72.67 | 0.36 | 50.75% |
| Outside Top 23 | 166 | -18.36 | -0.11 | 42.77% |
The Bucs will do bad things to bad quarterbacks. But if you can even sniff efficiency, you will likely torch this defense, and Wilson has been doing much more than that recently.
Thankfully, pricing hasn't caught onto the reborn Wilson just yet. He's just $7,500 on FanDuel, well short of his high-water mark of $8,700 earlier in the season. That's going to shoot up soon, and we'd be wise to invest while we can, even if he will come with high ownership.
You've got options for stacking in Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham, and you really can't go wrong with either. Both have matchups just as tasty as Wilson's.
The Buccaneers have allowed two separate tight ends -- Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce -- to top 100 receiving yards against them this year. They've allowed only three touchdowns to the position, but it's hard to judge a team's competency versus a position based solely on touchdowns. With Graham's 22.7% target market share from Week 3 on, he's a top-tier option at the position this week.
With Baldwin, the targets are certainly concerning. He hasn't hit double digits since Week 3, and he has topped seven only once in the past four weeks. However, he's tied with Graham for the team lead in red-zone targets with nine, and when you've got a quarterback dealing like Wilson, that's exactly what we seek.