Over/Under: 51.0
Saints Implied Team Total: 24.25
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 26.75
This NFC South clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints is the only game this week with an over/under of more than 48 points. Tampa Bay's implied total of 26.75 points is top of the week. Both of these teams rank in the top three in plays per game, and on a week with a lot of low Vegas numbers, where weather could once again impact a handful of games, this contest is going to be one to target.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $8,200
Jameis Winston is the week's fifth-most expensive passer thanks to the matchup with the Saints, who have been torched by Colin Kaepernick, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford in recent weeks. Per our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, New Orleans ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back, and they're allowing the 4th-most passing yards per game to opposing signal callers.
Winston has been a very consistent fantasy performer -- posting between 15 and 22 FanDuel points in each of his past eight games -- but the tournament-winning upside hasn't been there. Still, according to our numbers, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the league since Tampa's Week 6 bye, and the fantasy production could soon follow.
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $5,600
Mike Evans is the obvious pairing with Winston, and Evans may very well feast on the Saints' secondary. However, Cameron Brate is in a good spot, as well, and he could help differentiate your lineup for tournaments. He's also significantly cheaper than Evans ($8,900), who is the most expensive wideout this week.
Brate led the Bucs in targets last week, and he's seen at least five looks in five of the past six games. Brate has scored four touchdowns in that stretch, and he's been a red zone maven all year. He has been targeted 13 times in the red zone this season, including 6 times inside the 10-yard line. To compare, Evans has seen 15 red zone looks, with 7 of those coming inside the 10.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $6,600
Running backs are always attractive in high-scoring games due to their touchdown upside, so Doug Martin and Mark Ingram are worth a look. But if the game script unfolds as expected, Michael Thomas will be in a sweet spot.
Thomas has become Drew Brees' top weapon, pacing New Orleans in targets (89), receptions (69), touchdowns (7), and plays of 20-plus yards (13). The Bucs have the league's sixth-ranked pass defense, per our metrics, but the Saints' expected passing volume should help Thomas.
As a bonus, Thomas, despite a nice salary, could see lower ownership than usual because he burned a lot of people in Week 13 in what appeared to be a sweet home matchup with the Detroit Lions.