Why, Jeremy Hill? Why couldn't you have had some semblance of a pulse the past two weeks to make this easy? Now, we've gotta play the hope game, and I'm not about that life, man. Still, it'll be hard to stay away from Hill this week even with his recent hatred of efficiency.
This is only a discussion because Hill and the Cincinnati Bengals are facing the Cleveland Browns. As you've probably noticed by now, the Browns aren't so good at this football thing, especially when it comes to slowing opposing rushing offenses.
The Browns are currently 28th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics, just one slot ahead of the San Francisco 49ers, the team everybody loves to target. The Browns don't have the pace of the 49ers (though they are eighth in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders), but they do have the wretchedness, allowing for a sweet, sweet combo of volume and efficiency.
In 12 games, the Browns have allowed 10 different running backs to rush for at least 65 yards. Those 10 players have combined for 11 rushing touchdowns, and the only person who didn't find the end zone was Terrance West. That list, indeed, includes Hill, who went bananas with 168 yards on just nine carries in Week 7 before an injury cut his day short.
That brings us to looking at Hill, who -- as mentioned -- has been snorting hot garbage recently. In two games since Giovani Bernard's season-ending injury, Hill has 35 carries for 54 yards. He has added nine targets, resulting in 73 receiving yards, but those two games are major clunkers.
That said, they're also outliers in what has been an overall solid season for Hill.
Hill enters Week 14 ranked seventh in Rushing NEP per carry of the 38 running backs with at least 80 carries. His mark of 0.05 in that department isn't quite as high as his 0.09 output in his rookie year, but it's a good jump up from -0.06 in 2015. Although Hill's nothing special, he's likely at least talented enough to hold off back-up Rex Burkhead, and that could be all he needs to succeed against these Browns.
The other thing we have to keep in mind with Hill is he didn't exactly have the peachiest matchups to work with the past two weeks. His first Gio-less game was against the Baltimore Ravens, easily numberFire's top-ranked rush defense. The following Philadelphia Eagles are 14th, but they've also been much better with defensive tackle Bennie Logan healthy as he was against the Bengals.
It's safe to say things will be a bit easier against the Browns.
This is a spot similar to Bell's where weather will play a factor. With 15 mile-per-hour winds and snow on the way, this isn't a game that figures to be heavy on passing. This only provides another incentive to overlook Hill's recent duds and go back to him in Week 14.