A big theme of this week is going to be the weather. If you scroll through numberFire's games and lineups page, you're going to see a boatload of red and yellow that'll trigger even the most resilient gag reflex. This includes Sunday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills with 15 mile-per-hour winds and snowfall in the forecast.
That may just make Le'Veon Bell better.
We did a study last year on numberFire to see how players at each position perform in cold weather, specifically when the temperature dips below 40 degrees. Running backs were the biggest beneficiaries, averaging 1.19 more half-PPR points per game (minimum 10 carries) than they did as a whole when reaching that same threshold. Their volume went up, but so did their efficiency and touchdown expectation, meaning this wasn't just due to the natural flukiness in fantasy scoring.
We truly do want to target running backs in cooler temperatures like we'll see in Buffalo Sunday.
Bell is the perfect guy to exploit this given his matchup against the Bills' struggling rush defense. They started the season off by stifling opposing backfields, but the past six games have been a wildly different story.
| Split | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Six Games | 137 | -12.70 | -0.09 |
| Past Six Games | 144 | 8.37 | 0.06 |
This includes last week when Latavius Murray and Jalen Richard combined to run 29 times for 135 yards and 2 touchdowns. If they can do that, then you can bet on a big day from someone as sickly as Bell.
The obvious question here is what we do with Bell considering that the Steelers are on the road. They're the team in football most notorious for their home/road splits -- outside of the Saints -- meaning we don't usually want to invest in their assets when they're not at Heinz Field. While that's true for both Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, Bell is a bit of a different beast.
Below are his numbers over the past three seasons at home compared to on the road thanks to the RotoViz game splits app. The "Fantasy Points" column is based on half-PPR scoring.
| Split | Games | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 16 | 77.94 | 58.06 | 19.54 |
| Road | 15 | 99.13 | 37.47 | 20.19 |
Even though his involvement in the passing game seems to go down, Bell's rushing output spikes when the team hits the road. Overall, the difference in scoring is negligible, but it seems clear that Bell doesn't lose as much away from home as his teammates do, especially in a game that would favor a more rush-heavy script.
Obviously, there's an opportunity cost associated with paying up for Bell. It likely means you won't also be able to squeeze David Johnson and his sauciness into your life with his $9,700 price tag on FanDuel. While that's obviously a buzzkill, it's something we can accept once we see how close Bell and Johnson are in their usage.
This table shows the opportunities the two receive on a per-game basis. Bell's target market share is based solely on the games after his suspension ended.
| Player | Carries Per Game | Target Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 19 | 19.43% |
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 22.99% |
From a usage standpoint, they're essentially twins of saintliness.
The big thing separating the two this year in fantasy is touchdowns, with Johnson hitting paydirt 15 times compared to four for Bell. Considering that Bell has 52.78% of the team's red-zone opportunities over the fast five games, touchdowns aren't a long-term issue for him. They just haven't broken his way yet.
Both Johnson and Bell are supreme talents, and it's hard to say no to either. But this week, based on the Steelers' higer implied team total, the Bills' declining rush defense, Bell's discounted price, and Johnson's likely higher ownership, Bell seems to be the superior choice for this week.