Many people were excited about Devontae Booker's landing spot with the Denver Broncos after getting selected in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL draft.
Seemingly second in line behind an injury-riddled Net Expected Points (NEP), we can see just how much his rookie season has actually been a tale of two seasons.
NEP contextualizes traditional box score statistics to truly quantify on-field performance. For example, a 3-yard run on 3rd-and-2 is immensely more valuable than a 3-yard run on 3rd-and-4. The former results in a first down and the latter usually results in a punt. The former would typically result in positive NEP, the latter with negative NEP.
Check out Booker's production over the course of 2016:
| Carries | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Rush | Rushing Success Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-7 | 51 | 1.83 | 0.04 | 47.05% |
| Weeks 8-14 | 98 | -21.32 | -0.22 | 25.51% |
Booker's work was limited before Anderson's injury, but he was very productive. Sporting an efficient 0.03 Rushing NEP per rush, Booker ranked 15th among 35 running backs with at least 50 carries through Week 7. His 47.05% Rushing Success Rate --the percentage of runs that contribute positively to NEP-- ranked 6th among that same cohort.
So, Booker was consistently moving the chains when given a shot.
But since Week 8, it's become clear that Booker isn't ready to assume the lead dog role in the Broncos' backfield. He owns an awful -0.21 Rushing NEP per rush and a 25.5% Rushing Success Rate.
How clear should it be? Well, since Gary Kubiak let just-signed-off-the-street running back Justin Forsett to out-touch Booker 9 to 6, it became crystal clear.
I wouldn't advise placing trust in Forsett, but if you're headed into a playoff match thinking this is a temporary funk, turn back and put Booker on your bench as soon as possible. The workload just won't be there to overcome his ineffectiveness any longer.