Over/Under: 46.0
Cowboys Implied Team Total: 26.50
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 19.50
Most weeks, the 26.5 points the Dallas Cowboys are projected for wouldn't draw much attention, but it is the second-highest implied team total on the slate. A home matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be just what the Cowboys need to get right after last week's let-down game against the New York Giants.
While Dallas has played at the second-slowest pace in the league, Tampa Bay ranks 10th. Their games have also featured the seventh-most total plays per game, so it's fair to expect a small boost to the Dallas offensive players.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $7,900
Dak Prescott has struggled in recent weeks, but still ranks as the fourth-most efficient passer according to NEP per drop back (.28). Tampa Bay has defended the pass much better in recent weeks, but still ranks 28th in yards per attempt (7.7) on the year and has some huge performances against them on their ledger this season, highlighted by 35.8, 27.8, and 24.2 FanDuel points allowed to Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer, respectively.
Based on this year's 13-game sample size, game script sets up well for Dak in this one, too. In the six games Dallas has won by at least seven points, he has averaged 251 passing yards, 2.2 touchdowns, and 21.4 FanDuel points as opposed to 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 16.8 points in the seven others.
Given Prescott's recent struggles and Tampa Bay's recent success against the pass, he's not advisable as anything more than a tournament play. However, game script suggests a bounce-back performance could be in store for Prescott.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $8,500
Despite back-to-back tough matchups and a sputtering offense, Ezekiel Elliott has remained excellent, averaging 4.4 yards per carry over the past two weeks. On the year, he is the only back to rank in the top-three in both Rushing NEP per play (.10) and Rushing Success Rate (47%). His opponent, the Bucs, rank ninth-worst in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play and eighth-worst in rushing yards per attempt allowed.
In the six games Dallas has won by at least seven points, Zeke has averaged 23 carries for 127 yards and 20.9 FanDuel points as opposed to 21.1 carries for 91 yards and 19.5 points in the other seven games. Given the evidence pointed out by Raybon earlier on running backs playing as favorites, it seems safe to expect Elliott's elite season to continue.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $8,200
Mike Evans has also struggled in recent weeks, but has a chance for a bounce-back.
The Cowboys have done a decent job of masking their lack of talent in the secondary due to their slow pace of play, but still rank 11th-worst in both Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and FanDuel points allowed per game to opposing receivers. In their past five games, Dallas' secondary has been exposed, including 27.4 FanDuel points for Antonio Brown, 19.9 for Steve Smith, 19.8 for DeSean Jackson, and 17.4 for Odell Beckham.
In his career, Evans has averaged 11.4 targets in games the Bucs have lost by seven or more points, as opposed to 8.6 targets in all other games. So, if game script holds up, he will likely be peppered with targets in this one as Tampa Bay plays catch-up.