I’m writing this article to you all from a cabin with my in-laws up north in Minnesota, about 30 minutes from the Canadian border. Every year, they spend a whole week up here just skiing, playing games, and curling up by the fire, and I got invited along for the first time last year. I’m really lucky to be included in this experience.

In all actuality, luck has nothing to do with it, from being brought into your significant other’s family to making a big play to save -- or win -- a National Football League game.

No, in both of those cases, there’s a necessary level of skill required to ensure you’re in the right place at the right time. One needs to find a good enough team to be a part of, in order to be in a position to succeed at all. There are a lot of things at work in those cases, and while we can’t quantify what makes a good fit in a family, we can show you exactly how awesome the big plays of Week 16 were.

Which plays from Week 16 should you invite in, by numberFire’s Net Expected Points (NEP) analytic?