Speaking of impending free agents, Rex Burkhead's audition toward the end of the year was simply saucy.
Burkhead finished the season with 74 total attempts, and that's not exactly a robust sample from which to draw conclusions. It means we should be putting heavier emphasis on his Success Rate, which would see a lower influence from the role he played and big plays within it. If we do this, he simply runs laps around Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.
| Running Back | Carries | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 222 | 3.74 | 0.02 | 39.19% |
| Giovani Bernard | 91 | -5.98 | -0.07 | 40.66% |
| Rex Burkhead | 74 | 11.36 | 0.15 | 54.05% |
If Burkhead had gotten enough carries to qualify, he would have been one of only two players with a Success Rate above 50%, joining Mike Gillislee. It was a small sample, but that sample has to at least grab your attention.
The concern with Burkhead getting the bulk of his volume in two games (52.70% of his carries came in Weeks 16 and 17) is that his superiority could have been just tied to matchups. If he had faced a below-average team in both, then this would taint his numbers. However, those two teams -- the Ravens and Houston Texans -- ranked first and seventh, respectively, against the rush this year, according to numberFire's metrics.
It's hard to find reasons to delegitimize Burkhead's efficiency.
Given Burkhead's relative lack of experience, we'll want to be a bit skeptical of him in offseason best-ball drafts and in looking forward to next year. But if he can wind up on a team where he'll at least get opportunities, he's absolutely worth consideration on the off chance 2016 was just a reflection of what he can do going forward.