Win Probability Added: 7.67%

Another win probability lesson: if it's 3rd-and-long and a team converts with a big play, expect it to change the game's expected outcome by quite a bit.

That's what happened in the first quarter of the Giants-Packers game, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers targeted Jordy Nelson deep. Nelson didn't come up with the grab, but there was a pass interference call on Janoris Jenkins, giving the Packers a fresh set of downs in Giants' territory.