Win Probability Change: -8.10% | Win Probability After Play: 15.70%

It's not often that -- in a 44-21 game -- you can point to a single play and say that it was the turning point. Aaron Ripkowski's fumble may serve as the exception.

Trailing, 10-0, in the second quarter, the Packers needed to get the offense rolling. And they were doing so successfully with consecutive completions of at least 17 yards from Aaron Rodgers to Randall Cobb to put the team in Atlanta territory. This was progress.

After a clutch five-yard completion to Jared Cook on 3rd and 4 put the Packers on the Falcons' 23-yard line, Green Bay turned to its ground game. Ripkowski got the ball and was bullying his way through Atlanta defenders, all the way down inside the 10. Then the bottom fell out.

This play looks huge through the eyes of win probability with the Packers going from 23.79% win odds to 15.70%. But remember that win probability is calculated only after a play concludes. That means the Packers' win odds would likely have been even larger had Ripkowski simply fallen with a first down at the 10-yard line. Instead, the ball popped out, and the Falcons got possession on the 20-yard line. Simply win probability shows that this play was big, but not even that shows how big it was.

Nine plays later, Ryan scrambled in for a 14-yard touchdown, and the Falcons' win odds were at 92.73%. It barely dipped below 90% the rest of the way as Atlanta cruised to victory. It's clear that the Falcons out-played the Packers on the whole in this game, but it's hard not to wonder what might have been had Ripkowski not coughed it up.