We all know that the Patriots want to run the majority of their offense through Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan. Edelman has double-digit targets in eight of the last nine games, and Hogan almost single-handedly won the AFC championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But even if the Falcons find a way to shut down the receivers, the Patriots have the necessary components to feast.
Let's stay in the passing game first with Martellus Bennett. In the NFC championship game, the Falcons had some troubles stopping Green Bay Packers tight end Jared Cook as he turned a team-leading 12 targets into 7 receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. Cook had been on a tear leading to that game, but the Falcons struggled against tight ends the entire regular season.
The Falcons allowed the ninth-most receptions and yards to tight ends on the season, according to FFToday.com. Travis Kelce gashed them for 140 yards, Coby Fleener had 109, and Jimmy Graham had 89. Bennett ranked seventh in Reception NEP per target of the 35 tight ends with at least 40 targets, meaning they can turn to him if Atlanta blankets Hogan and Edelman.
The same is true for Dion Lewis and James White. The Falcons allowed a whopping 109 receptions to running backs this year, seven more than any other team. White was ninth in Reception NEP per target of the 32 running backs with at least 40 targets, and Lewis has already shown in the playoffs that he can do this.
.@Patriots strike first!
TB12 finds the speedy @dionlewisRB for the TD. #HOUvsNE #NFLPlayoffs https://t.co/BxSp7VmLQW
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2017
The odds that the Falcons are able to stop Edelman and Hogan seem long to begin with given their issues in the secondary. But even if they do, the depth of this Patriots attack is bonkers, and Atlanta has struggled to stop similar pieces throughout the season. Unless something strange happens, it's hard to foresee a scenario in which the Falcons shut down the Patriots, putting boatloads of pressure on Ryan and company to keep pace offensively.