Win Probability Swing: +16.97% | Win Probability After: 91.39%
If nothing else, you've at least got this, Falcons fans. No play in Sunday's game had a bigger impact on win probability than Robert Alford taking one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time behind the woodshed.
At this point, it was still a 14-point game with just under three minutes left before halftime. The Patriots were on the Atlanta 23, meaning they should be able to snag a field goal to cut the deficit a smidge, pushing their win odds to 26.13%. Alford had other plans.
🚨🚨 PICK-6 ALERT! 🚨🚨@rockorocky takes TB12's pass 82 yards the OTHER WAY! #SB51 #RiseUp https://t.co/F3zp4FUYva
— NFL (@NFL) February 6, 2017
Brady may have put on a clinic in the fourth quarter and overtime, but dude will not be making tackling demonstration videos any time soon.
With that one play, the win probability swung 16.97 percentage points in Atlanta's favor. Suddenly, they had over 90% odds of victory, and we were still in the first half. The Patriots' field goal before halftime brought Atlanta's win odds to 91.38%, but this baby was pretty firmly in hand. Until it wasn't.
Had Atlanta won, Alford would have gone down as a hero, the man who helped bring the city its long-awaited first title. Instead, the play is largely forgotten, giving way to White's exploits and Brady's precision. But that doesn't erase the fact that Alford made a huge play on the sport's biggest stage, even if the end result was far from satisfactory.