Win Probability Swing: -9.77% | Win Probability After: 54.79%
The Patriots didn't make many mistakes late in the game, but there were two big ones in the first half. The other is still to come, but LeGarrette Blount will want to forget this play.
Right at the start of the second quarter, the Patriots' win odds were hovering around where they started at 58.95%. Then, Brady hit Edelman for a 27-yard gain to put New England in Atlanta territory. Blount erased the scoring opportunity.
Blount on the carry.
Blount with the FUMBLE.
This @AtlantaFalcons D came to play! #SB51https://t.co/EbZRVrlf2E
— NFL (@NFL) February 6, 2017
The fumble itself was bad enough as the Patriots were already in field-goal range. But then Atlanta's offense went to work, going the other direction for Freeman's touchdown. In a six-play span, the Patriots' win odds went from 64.56% to 40.34%. Blount's fumble was the biggest contributor to that swing. That said, they certainly made up for it later, finishing things off with the next play on our list.