Games Played: 18 | Passer Efficiency Rating: 157.9 | AY/A: 9.1
Top Statistical Comp: Mark Sanchez
Oh boy. If you're talking red flags, and you don't bring up Mitch Trubisky's lack of experience, you're doing it all wrong.
Trubisky enters the NFL draft with just 13 career starts and an additional five games in which he had at least 10 pass attempts. His 18 qualified games rank 59th out of our aforementioned group of 60. The only guy he beats is -- you guessed it -- Mark Sanchez.
Sanchez -- like Trubisky -- left school after just one full season as the starter. None of his five qualified NFL seasons have resulted in top-15 finishes in Total NEP, and he finished the season as the number three quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. Unfortunately for Trubisky, the two have more in common than just their lack of experience.
| Player | Games | Pass. Eff. Rat. | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Trubisky | 18 | 157.9 | 9.1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 16 | 164.6 | 8.8 |
Trubisky's AY/A -- the more important statistic -- was higher than Sanchez's, but Sanchez edged him in passer efficiency rating. Sanchez's collegiate stats were on par with Trubisky's, he was the fifth overall pick, and he still flamed out. We shouldn't use one example to condemn all who follow, but this is flat out scary.
Sanchez isn't the only example we have of players with limited experience and decent efficiency. There have been four quarterbacks who have played 25 or fewer games, had an AY/A of at least 9.0, and wound up as first-round picks. Here's that list with their stats alongside Trubisky's.
| Quarterback | Games | Pass. Eff. Rat. | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25 | 165.9 | 10 |
| Johnny Manziel | 25 | 172.9 | 10 |
| Akili Smith | 22 | 167.3 | 10.9 |
| Alex Smith | 22 | 176.5 | 10.8 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 18 | 157.9 | 9.1 |
Those players have a combined 16 qualified seasons, and they have turned those into three top-15 seasons (one by David Carr and two by Alex Smith). Carr, Alex Smith, and Akili Smith also had the draft pedigree that we look for, but none wound up being a superstar, all while having superior college efficiency stats to Trubisky. This is alarming for a guy who will likely also be a high-end pick.
In our sampling of 60, Trubisky ranks 26th in passer efficiency rating and 28th in AY/A despite ranking first and second, respectively, of this year's class. Historically, his efficiency metrics are nothing amazing, and his lack of experience is tied to a string of busts. If he had gone back to school for another season and beefed things up, it'd be easier to understand the hype, but as it stands right now, Trubisky is frightening.
A team will likely wind up rolling the dice early on Trubisky. That leaves them vulnerable if he winds up crashing and burning. Based on what he offers statistically, they are inheriting a ton of risk here, and there is no guarantee the pick pans out. It seems like the best strategy would be to wait on the position and snag one of the other options at a discount.