Which quarterbacks gave their teams the best chance to emerge victorious?
| Player | Round | Passing NEP per Drop Back |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | NFC Wild Card | 0.38 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NFC Wild Card | 0.38 |
| Tom Brady | AFC Championship | 0.53 |
| Matt Ryan | NFC Divisional | 0.54 |
| Matt Ryan | NFC Championship | 0.89 |
With only 16 successes and a success rate of 48.48% in Seattle's wild card win, Wilson lost the tiebreaker for number four. Due to three sacks, he contributed just 12.50 Passing NEP, the only top performance with a total Passing NEP below 15. Nonetheless, Wilson led his Seahawks to the victory with two touchdowns through the air.
Rodgers' wild card performance against the Giants just edges out Wilson's. Despite 5 sacks, he totaled 17.02 NEP with a total of 23 successful passes, adding points to Green Bay's expected point total on 51.11% of attempts. He diced up New York's secondary to the tune of 362 yards and 4 touchdowns.
It just so happens that Brady's AFC Championship performance was way better than his MVP-warranting, Super Bowl-winning performance. His 23.5 Passing NEP is nearly 12 expected points better than that which he racked up in the big game.
In the Patriots' conference championship win over the Steelers, Brady tallied 25 successful passes with a 56.82% success rate, which placed him second in the 2016 postseason among all quarterback performances, as he tossed 3 touchdowns in the 36-17 win.
Right ahead of Brady's performance is Matt Ryan's success in the Atlanta Falcons' 36-20 win over the Seahawks. The signal-caller was sacked on three occasions, but threw for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns, adding 21.59 expected points on 21 passing successes.
Then, in the NFC Championship, Ryan slayed his Green Bay demons.
After being roughed up by the Pack in the 2010 playoffs, Ryan returned the favor by assaulting Green Bay to the tune of 392 yards and 4 touchdowns. All in all, that's a ridiculous 33.98 Passing NEP -- 10 more than the next-closest 2016 playoff total. Ryan compiled a 65.79% success rate, which was also, by far, the best of all quarterbacks. I'm sure the Packers don't want to be seeing that man any time soon.