After posting a ridiculous 0.98 Reception NEP per target in 2015 -- which ranked him third out of qualified receivers -- Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker created a lot of buzz entering the 2016 season. He was projected by some to have an explosive campaign, which ultimately never came to fruition.
Parker more than doubled his receptions, but he only scored one more touchdown while increasing his receiving yards by over 50%. The minimal increase in traditional stats could be attributed to the fact that the Dolphins held the fifth-highest rushing play percentage in the league, led by the emergence of Pro Bowl running back Jay Ajayi.
At first glance, one would see that Parker had a so-so season, but the advanced metrics show where his decline happened.
| Category | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 26 | 56 |
| Catch Rate | 52.00% | 63.64% |
| Reception NEP per Target (Rank) | 0.98 (3rd) | 0.64 (T-35th) |
| Reception Success Rate | 84.62% | 82.14% |
| Receiving Yards | 494 | 744 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 4 |
With his increased usage in the Dolphins' offense, Parker saw himself have an extremely less efficient season, as evidenced by a significant drop in Reception NEP per Target. He did increase his catch rate, but that doesn't match up with the slight decline in Reception Success Rate.