Brandin Cooks wasn't a free agent, but his fantasy stock has fallen since the start of free agency after being traded to the Patriots.
This may be shocking to some -- how could a guy see a dip in fantasy output when Tom Brady is his new quarterback? -- but let's break it down.
We're not yet entirely sure how Cooks is going to be used in the New England offense, but it would make sense to keep Julian Edelman in the slot and have Chris Hogan (X) and Cooks (Z) primarily on the outside.
It's tough to envision Edelman without a decent-sized market share in the Pats' offense as long as he holds his slot position. I mean, look at his market share numbers over the last four years:
| Year | Games | Targets | Market Share | 16-Game Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16 | 159 | 28.91% | 28.91% |
| 2015 | 9 | 88 | 13.99% | 24.87% |
| 2014 | 14 | 134 | 22.00% | 25.15% |
| 2013 | 16 | 151 | 24.04% | 24.04% |
Let's play it safe and say Edelman's market share drops to just 22% this year given Cooks' presence.
And then there's Rob Gronkowski.
| Year | Gms | Targets | Market Share | 16-Game Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8 | 38 | 6.91% | 13.82% |
| 2015 | 15 | 120 | 19.08% | 20.35% |
| 2014 | 15 | 131 | 21.51% | 22.94% |
| 2013 | 7 | 66 | 10.51% | 24.02% |
| 2012 | 11 | 80 | 12.48% | 18.15% |
| 2011 | 16 | 124 | 20.26% | 20.26% |
A healthy Gronk -- arguably the best offensive weapon in football -- will demand around a 20% market share himself. Again, as long as he's healthy.
On top of this, the Patriots have targeted running backs out of the backfield on far more than 15% of their targets over the last five seasons, digging into a receiver's workload even more.
In turn, we're looking at splitting up about 40% of the Patriots' targets between Cooks, Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Dwayne Allen, and the rest of the gang.
Basically, Cooks' market share shouldn't be much different -- or, I should say, it would be a surprise if it was significantly better -- than what he saw in New Orleans, which was around 18%.
And, as you probably know, the Patriots don't throw the ball as much as the Saints do.
| Year | Team | Attempts | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | NE | 550 | -124 |
| 2016 | NO | 674 | |
| 2015 | NE | 629 | -38 |
| 2015 | NO | 667 | |
| 2014 | NE | 609 | -50 |
| 2014 | NO | 659 | |
| 2013 | NE | 628 | -23 |
| 2013 | NO | 651 | |
| 2012 | NE | 641 | -30 |
| 2012 | NO | 671 | |
| 2011 | NE | 612 | -50 |
| 2011 | NO | 662 |
You could argue strongly, too, that Cooks' touchdown upside isn't as high in New England as it was in New Orleans given the red zone weapons they have (read: Gronk), and we also know that Cooks has been much worse outside of the Superdome than inside of it.
It's not that the Cooks trade was a bad one for New England. (In fact, I loved it.) It's just that it may end up being a better real football move than fake football one as far as Cooks is concerned.