Just like the Titans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an up-and-coming offense that's led by a young quarterback, and they made key offensive additions in both the draft and free agency.
First, let's give some love to Jameis Winston, who has put together a pair of promising seasons.
As a rookie in 2015, Winston ranked 16th in Passing NEP per play among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, finishing with a clip of 0.12. He improved a bit in 2016 thanks to a red-hot streak, posting 0.15 Passing NEP per drop back, which was good enough for 13th among the same subset and means Winston added 0.15 Expected Points each time he dropped back to pass. (For reference, MVP Matt Ryan led the league last season with a Passing NEP per drop back of 0.37.)
Winston's Passing Success Rate -- the percentage of his drop backs which resulted in a positive NEP gain -- was 47.8% as a rookie and 49.8% last season, with his 2016 clip ranking eighth among passers with at least 100 drop backs.
| Season | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Rank | Passing Success Rate | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.12 | 16th | 47.8% | 20th |
| 2016 | 0.15 | 13th | 49.8% | 8th |
Winston's excellent start puts him in pretty elite company, per a 2014 study we did on rookie quarterbacks. Any way you slice it, when a young quarterback does what Winston has done, it bodes pretty well for his future (and the future of his franchise).
Famous Jameis has excelled despite the Bucs being pretty weak at wideout. Outside of created player Mike Evans, who gobbled up an insane 173 targets in 2016, the team didn't have much in the way of big-play pass catchers, giving a combined 204 targets to Adam Humphries (83), Cameron Brate (81) and Russell Shepard (40).
Such a one-man passing attack shouldn't be an issue this season as Tampa Bay added wideout DeSean Jackson in free agency and spent a first-round pick on tight end O.J. Howard.
Jackson has been nothing short of a generational deep-ball threat and big-play machine in his career, and he should be a perfect fit for the Bucs. D-Jax gives the aerial attack a much-needed outside threat opposite Evans, and he should mesh well with Winston, a dude who likes to chuck it deep.
Howard didn't put up appealing numbers at Alabama, but he played well in the past two National Championship games and his athletic profile screams upside. A hybrid-type tight end, Howard and Brate should be a nice tandem, and Howard could eventually develop into a key across-the-middle playmaker for Tampa Bay.
The ground game can get a lift, too, if Doug Martin returns to form (offseason reports have been positive) and Charles Sims stays healthy. Rookie back Jeremy McNichols was an underrated pickup in the fifth round, too.
After an ugly 2-14 season in 2014, which led to them taking Winston first overall, Tampa Bay has improved each year, going 6-10 in 2015, followed by a 9-7 campaign a year ago. If the defense -- which ranked 21st last year, per our models -- can elevate its game, the Bucs might find themselves in position to snap their nine-year postseason drought.