When targeting a late-round quarterback in a fantasy football draft, you want upside. The position is replaceable and easy to predict each week, so in most instances, your worst-case scenario is to stream the position.

"So why is Andy Dalton on this list?" says the guy who has no idea that Dalton has essentially been a high-end QB1 in fantasy twice over the last five years.

Andy Dalton -- red hair and all -- has upside.

Just two seasons ago, Dalton averaged nearly 19 standard fantasy points per game, but that number includes a contest where he was injured early, throwing just five passes. Remove that game, and his per-game rate spikes to 20.32. That's Drew Brees-esque.

He maintained that average through a career high 6.5% touchdown rate -- over the course of his six-year NFL stint, he's averaged a 4.6% touchdown rate.

Heading into last year, Dalton was bound to regress to his career mean, but he actually went far below it, throwing a touchdown on just 3.2% of his passes. That was a career low.

But he was also without A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert for much of the year. The two of them have been meaningful pieces to Dalton's bottom line over the last two years, especially the former:

Despite Dalton's touchdown rate regression last season, he was still able to finish 12th in fantasy points per game at the quarterback position. How? Well, he only tossed 18 touchdowns -- the lowest total of his career -- but he threw for 4,206 yards. He was able to stay relevant in fantasy through volume and a decent-enough 7.5 yards per attempt rate.

Now, imagine a world where he maintains that volume -- 563 pass attempts -- while hitting the touchdown rate threshold he's had with Green and Eifert over the last two years:

A 31-touchdown season? That's (reasonable) upside. And you can snag him for virtually no cost during your fantasy football draft, as he's being selected in the 12th-round according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com.