Someone has to be last, and this year, it's the Cleveland Browns to start the season, according to the metrics.

Running back Isaiah Crowell disagrees with that, but the Browns do have a lot to show on the field before we can buy into the expectations. In 2016, Cleveland ranked 22nd in Adjusted NEP per play on offense (26th via the pass and 17th via the rush) and improved the offensive line by bringing in Kevin Zeitler and J.C. Tretter.

They still don't have a clear quarterback, though. Cody Kessler was actually a pretty solid passer when given time in the pocket in 2016, but with DeShone Kizer and even Brock Osweiler in the mix (possibly), the Browns might not have the necessary stability to click on their offensive potential.

The 31st-ranked defense (32nd against the pass and 27th against the rush) might improve, thanks to number-one pick Myles Garrett, who is an athletic outlier, and Jabrill Peppers, but there are still too many question marks for the Browns for the algorithms to believe the hype.