ADP: 6.05 (RB29)
Let's run down Mark Ingram's PPR numbers from the past three years.
| PPR | Total Points | Points Per Game | Overall Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 191.9 | 12.5 | 15th |
| 2015 | 201.4 | 12.6 | 15th |
| 2016 | 242.2 | 12.3 | 10th |
The guy is really good at football, and as a key part of the vaunted New Orleans Saints' offense, he's been one of fantasy's best weapons since the start of 2014.
Now -- mostly because of the arrival of a 32-year-old back who has played a total of 20 games across the last three seasons -- Ingram's draft price is slashed from where it was 12 months ago, when he was a third-round pick being taken as the RB11 in PPR leagues.
Of course, the aforementioned 32-year-old running back is Adrian Peterson, one of the best running backs in the history of football. AP, though, as great as he's been over his illustrious career, is (one more time) 32 with 2,418 career carries on his legs. And there's also the not-so-small issue of Peterson riding shotgun on the struggle bus the last three years.
He certainly hasn't been anywhere close to as productive as Ingram has been the past three seasons in terms of Rushing NEP per carry.
| Rushing NEP/Carry | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Adrian Peterson | -0.21 | 0.01 | -0.38 |
And while his 2016 sample size is miniscule (37 attempts) and the Minnesota Vikings had some offensive line issues, Peterson's numbers don't stack up well with the Vikings' other runners -- all of who managed to outperform him despite s similarly bad situation.
| 2016 Vikings | Attempts | Rushing NEP/Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 37 | -0.38 | 24.32 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 159 | -0.13 | 31.44 |
| Matt Asiata | 121 | -0.15 | 39.67 |
Listen, I get it -- it's AP, a dude who eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark in 2012 about 15 minutes after tearing his ACL, so it's hard to completely write him off. But he'd have to really buck his recent trend to have a big-time season this fall, and it's very difficult to justify Peterson's current PPR ADP, which is RB21 (5.04), well in front of Ingram (RB29).
Even if you want to count on Peterson hogging goal-line work, Ingram's receiving ability should keep him more than afloat in PPR formats. Over the past two years, he's averaged 48 catches and 362 yards per season. Add that to his usually stout rushing numbers -- even if he doesn't see the 205 carries he got in 2016 -- and you're looking at a solid PPR back.
As it stands now, with our projections expecting Peterson to log 139 carries to Ingram's 161, we have Ingram ranked as the RB14, making him one of this season's most undervalued commodities. And if AP breaks down or struggles -- not a huge if -- Ingram could give you a smashing return at his current price.