Positional ADP: RB26 | Projected Finish: RB22
I'm bucking the projections here, because I'm not sure why Ameer Abdullah is being drafted this highly.
In 2016, Abdullah was injured and missed 14 games. The injury is a red flag, and the lost year doesn't help us project him. As a rookie in 2015, he earned just 143 rushing attempts, despite having only Joique Bell (3.5 yards per attempt) and Theo Riddick (3.1 yards per carry) as competition.
Perhaps that's because Abdullah fumbled five times. His rushing fumble rate (2.8 percent) was second worst for running backs with 100 to 180 attempts. The only other backs in that cohort with a fumble rate over two percent? Ryan Mathews, Matt Jones, and James Starks. Not great company.
Meanwhile, Riddick has established himself as one of the game's premier pass-catching backs. Here are the top 10 running backs since 2015 in terms of targets, and Riddick's efficiency numbers look pretty good despite the monster volume.
| Player | Targets | Reception NEP/Tar | Rec Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 166 | 0.39 | 71.8% |
| Devonta Freeman | 162 | 0.39 | 72.9% |
| Darren Sproles | 154 | 0.27 | 61.5% |
| Duke Johnson | 149 | 0.39 | 62.9% |
| Bilal Powell | 138 | 0.26 | 58.0% |
| David Johnson | 120 | 0.58 | 76.3% |
| Danny Woodhead | 107 | 0.55 | 71.6% |
| Le'Veon Bell | 94 | 0.47 | 74.7% |
| James White | 86 | 0.46 | 71.7% |
| Shane Vereen | 81 | 0.39 | 69.5% |
Riddick may not be much as a rusher, but he holds his own with the best backs in the league when it comes to catching passes. It's tough to imagine Abdullah supplanting Riddick in this aspect of the game.
What about rushing opportunity? Detroit passed on almost 65 percent of its plays last year, the third-highest rate in the NFL. In 2015 they were the NFL's most pass-happy team.
This year? Vegas projects Detroit as a sub-.500 team, so it's fair to expect them to be an air-based team once again. Zach Zenner is still on the team, and Matt Asiata is lurking, as well. Abdullah will have to win what rushing role there is, and even if he gets the early-down gig, there's a good chance he gets replaced at the goal line by one of the bigger backs.
If he's not catching passes and not scoring touchdowns, he has a long road to fantasy relevance.
Instead Try
Mark Ingram is available later, and while he also faces competition, at least he's been successful in the past. We project him as the RB14, even though Adrian Peterson is in town. Tevin Coleman is also cheaper than Abdullah and has a better projection.