Positional ADP: WR19 | Projected Finish: WR28

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams finally had his big breakout last year. This year, he's overpriced.

There are no shortage of reasons to fade Adams.

In 2016, Aaron Rodgers attempted 610 passes, a career high. That was 38 more passes than he threw in 2015, and 90 more passes than he threw in 2014. Odds are the Packers don't throw as much this year.

The Packers got very little production from Jared Cook. This year they've got Martellus Bennett, who should be a much more effective target.

Adams' 2016 Reception NEP per target (0.74) was so far ahead of his marks in 2015 (0.34) and 2014 (0.58) that he seems likely to regress. For more, Akash Bhatia explains why Adams won't live up to his hype, and Brandon Gdula illustrates how far above expectations Adams' touchdown scoring was in 2016.

Randall Cobb is also a candidate for regression but of the positive sort. An improvement from Cobb probably means less work for Adams.

Instead Try

Again we take a peek at Crabtree, who is almost a round cheaper and has a better projection. Another target is Keenan Allen. It looks like rookie Mike Williams won't be a factor, which relieves the pressure on Allen's workload. He's a beast when healthy.