Positional ADP: RB31 | Projected Finish: RB47
Derrick Henry is a fantastic running back prospect, and if DeMarco Murray were to miss time, Henry would inherit the Tennessee Titans' voluminous workload. I love everything about that sentence, except the word "if."
A key premise of this slideshow is cost, or risk versus reward. Henry is being drafted as if he'll be usable on a weekly basis in fantasy leagues. But if Murray plays as well as last year, Henry won't be usable, and a key draft pick will have been wasted. Even worse, it'll be harder to manage your roster in season. You won't want to drop Henry because you spent a quality pick on him, and that will compromise your ability to work the waiver wire.
Should we expect Murray to miss time? Of course, all running backs are susceptible to injury, so it's very possible. But he's only missed one game in the past three seasons, and he never had less than 11 carries in a game in his first year in Tennessee.
Here are our top 10 projected running backs -- in order -- along with their injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor.
| Running Back | Chance of Injury |
|---|---|
| David Johnson | 57.8% |
| Le'Veon Bell | 85.3% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 54.1% |
| LeSean McCoy | 86.0% |
| Devonta Freeman | 12.0% |
| DeMarco Murray | 58.4% |
| Melvin Gordon | 61.7% |
| Jordan Howard | 20.2% |
| Jay Ajayi | 70.0% |
| Todd Gurley | 16.0% |
Nothing here suggests Murray's injury risk is out of line. If Henry were available much later in drafts, then he'd be an intriguing swing-for-the-fences bench stash. But at this price, I'm not willing to take a coin-toss chance of Henry being useful or not. Even if you own Murray, you should think twice about drafting Henry.
Instead Try
Frank Gore is available later, and he is expected to be a workhorse. We project him to finish as RB20, making him a hefty return on investment and a much safer pick than Henry.