Positional ADP: WR37 | Projected Finish: WR46
It's Summer, so it must be time for DeVante Parker hype. There are legitimate reasons for optimism. But there's one big reason why he'll disappoint in 2017.
Running back Jay Ajayi established himself as the focal point of the Miami Dolphins' offense in Week 5 of 2016. His emergence drastically changed Miami's offense.
| Stat | Weeks 1-4 | Weeks 5-17 |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Attempts Per Game | 34.5 | 28.3 |
| Rush Attempts Per Game | 18.5 | 27.8 |
Once Miami figured out what they had in Ajayi, they shed about six pass attempts per game. That means fewer targets to go around. Using the same pre- and post- Ajayi breakout splits, here's what happened to Parker's production.
| Per-Game Stats | Weeks 1-4 | Weeks 5-17 |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 7.3 | 5.5 |
| Receptions | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| Yards | 59.0 | 47.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0.33 | 0.25 |
Not great, Bob. That shift in offensive philosophy cost Parker about two standard-format fantasy points per game.
So, what do we know about the Dolphins offense for 2017?
Ajayi could push for 350 carries.
Ajayi has improved as a pass catcher.
Ajayi could be a top-five running back.
It seems obvious that Miami intends to run their offense through Ajayi, and that is bad news for Parker.
We haven't even talked about the fact that both Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills are back, or about the arrival of Julius Thomas, who could be a factor, as well.
Instead Try
Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson. Both are projected to finish well ahead of Parker, and they face fewer questions about offensive philosophy.