Positional ADP: WR49 | Projected Finish: WR75
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Taylor Gabriel had the best season of his career last year, highlighted by a seven-game stretch in which he posted double-digit points (standard scoring) six times. Hopefully you enjoyed it, because it's probably not happening again.
The Falcons' offense is almost certainly going to take a step back. The team as a whole posted an Offensive NEP total of 261.55 last year. That mark not only lead the league by a considerable margin -- New Orleans mark of 219.26 was second -- it was a top-10 offense in league history.
Unless you're expecting a historical outlier to happen again, Atlanta's offense won't be as good this season, and a smaller pie means a smaller slice for Gabriel.
Gabriel is due for some regression of his own, too. Last season, he caught 6 touchdowns on just 50 total targets (a 12 percent touchdown rate), but prior to that, he had scored just once on his previous 120 targets.
That 12 percent rate is unsustainable over the long haul. Among all receivers with more than 30 targets, Gabriel had the second-best touchdown rate in 2016. Do we think he's the second best touchdown-scorer in the league? No, we don't.
We can also see just how likely Gabriel is to regress by comparing his Reception NEP per target to his teammates, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu.
| Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jones | 0.88 | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Sanu | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| Gabriel | 0.60 | 0.23 | 1.03 |
Jones and Sanu both saw modest improvements last year, but nothing out of the ordinary compared to their history. Gabriel, on the other hand, posted a ridiculous high 1.03 Reception NEP per target.
For wideouts with 30 or more targets, that led the league. Do we think Gabriel is the best producer in the league on a per-target basis? No, no we don't.
Last year was a magical season for the Falcons' offense, but it's likely nothing more than an outlier in Gabriel's career trajectory.
Instead Try
Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings is available one pick ahead of Gabriel, and he has a much better forecast. He's the second-best wideouts on his team, and that should mean a higher weekly target floor. Thielen is our WR54 heading into the season, but he has upside from there. His teammate, Stefon Diggs, has missed time in each of his two seasons. When Diggs is out, Thielen averages roughly a point per game more (in standard formats).