Week | Opponent | Projected Defensive Pass NEP Rank |
---|---|---|
1 | Broncos | 1 |
2 | Dolphins | 16 |
3 | Chiefs | 4 |
4 | Eagles | 2 |
Drafting Keenan Allen at all in 2017 requires a leap of faith. He hasn't played a full 16-game season in his four years of NFL service. He hasn't played even a 10-game season in two years.
Moreover, he's coming off of an ACL tear that caused him to miss the full season in 2016, save for one half of one football game where he put together a ridiculous 6-catch, 63-yard stat line against Kansas City Chiefs star cornerback Marcus Peters.
So the injury history for Allen is significant. It's to Allen's advantage that he's only 25 years old -- he can probably (in theory) bounce back from an ACL tear quicker than 32-year old Jordy Nelson did in 2016.
But when you combine the injury Allen has with the schedule he's facing upon his return, things look scary for the month of September. With the Denver Broncos, Chiefs, and Eagles each sporting top-five projected pass defenses, Allen could struggle out of the gate.
And with the New York Giants, Broncos, Jaguars, and New England Patriots each sporting top-13 projected pass defenses, and each appearing on the Los Angeles Chargers' schedule before Week 10, Allen might end up being a better buy-low headed into November rather than October.
Unless he's sitting there at a point of irresistible value, it may be better to let Allen get his sea legs under him on a league mate's team.