Since Jeremy Hill entered the league three years ago, he and Giovani Bernard have accounted for a combined 76.86% of the Cincinnati Bengals carries. In two of those three seasons, the Bengals ranked inside the top 10 in Adjusted Rushing NEP per carry, and both of those running backs are still with the team. So it was surprising to see Cincinnati use a second-round pick in this year's draft on Joe Mixon.
The rookie is currently listed third on the depth chart, behind both Hill and Bernard. It's no guarantee that he can perform in the NFL at the level he did in college, especially running behind an offensive line that lost both their left tackle and right guard in the offseason. Plus, if he can't beat out the two guys currently ahead of him, he could very well end up near his floor projection of just 106.71 fantasy points this season, leaving fantasy owners wish they avoided him at his current third-round ADP.
But the Bengals used a second-round pick on him for a reason. This is a guy who averaged 6.8 yards per carry in his two years at Oklahoma. He also averaged 32.5 receptions over those two seasons, and he forced the fifth-most missed tackles on receptions among all FBS running backs in the 2016 draft class. He's good.
If Mixon can claim the starting job in Cincinnati and perform at the high level that he did in college, he has a chance to finish near his projected ceiling of 172.63 fantasy points, which would likely make him an RB1 (top-12 back) this season.