Teammate: Golden Tate ADP: 4.12
Consider this one highly improbable, but there was a point, early in the 2016 season, where Marvin Jones looked like he might be a top-12 receiver in the league. Reeling from the Calvin Johnson retirement, the Detroit Lions sought to patchwork over Megatron's absence with Jones, who had a 10-touchdown season on his resume from his time with the Cincinnati Bengals.
And Jones' early 2016 production was ridiculous -- he racked up 408 yards receiving in the first three games to lead all NFL wide receivers. During that three-game stretch, Tate managed to put up fewer than 100 yards of total receiving on 22 total targets.
So, what happened to Marvin Jones?
For starters, injuries derailed his hot start, beginning with a hamstring injury in Week 4, followed up by a foot injury in Week 5. Moreover, he dealt with thigh and quad injuries later on in the season. These issues called for Tate to step up, which he definitely did.
Even if most of Jones' production came early in the season before his slew of injuries, it's helpful to look at his contributions to the team as a whole compared to Tate.
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Reception NEP | Reception NEP per Target | Reception Success Rate | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones | 103 | 55 | 79.95 | 0.78 | 87.27% | 53.40% |
| Tate | 135 | 91 | 79.54 | 0.59 | 75.82% | 67.41% |
In terms of efficiency, Jones bested Tate by a fair amount. His 0.78 Reception NEP per target ranked 11th out of the 41 receivers with at least 100 targets last season, whereas Tate ranked 35th. Jones' Success Rate -- or, his percentage of receptions contributing positive NEP -- ranked 17th among those same 41 receivers and Tate's ranked 39th.
Still, there's a wide gulf between their respective catch rates. It will be extremely tough for Jones to outscore Tate, particularly in PPR leagues, with a 53.40% catch rate and 30 fewer targets.
Before 2016, Jones had a career 62.90% catch rate. Given his 103 targets in 2016, that would have equaled 64.8 catches -- 10 more than his actual reception total. And, at his 16.9 yards per reception, that would have totaled 1,095 yards. Without even adding any additional touchdowns to the four he caught last season, that’d be 192.3 PPR points, within two points per game of Tate's 223.1 PPR points last season.
If we assumed the Lions wanted to target him somewhere around 8 targets per game -- somewhere between the 9.7 targets per game he saw in Weeks 1 through 3, and the 6.2 targets per game he saw in Weeks 4 through 17-- that same 62.90% catch rate would yield 80.5 catches. And at his 16.9 yards per reception, that would have totaled 1,360 yards receiving. With the four touchdowns he caught last year, he would've outscored Tate in PPR leagues.
Playing the extrapolation game can certainly be error-prone, but Jones really did show his upside at the beginning of the 2016 season. If he can stay healthy, if he can get back to his career catch rate, and if he learned a thing or two from Randy Moss this offseason, it's possible he could turn into the Lions' top receiver.