Why This Is Bold: Lamar Miller has an average draft cost of RB13, while Carlos Hyde's is RB19.
Why This Will Happen: Over the offseason, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien noted that the team relied too heavily on Lamar Miller, especially early on during the 2016 campaign. What did they do? They went out and drafted the big-bodied D'Onta Foreman -- a running back -- in the third round of the NFL Draft.
Miller saw more than 200 carries for just the second time in his career last year, and his 268 attempts topped his previous career high of 215. He was worked, and he was worked far more than he had been worked before.
And he wasn't very effective. His 35.45% Success Rate not only was the lowest of his career, but the lowest on the Texans last season, too.
With Foreman potentially digging into Miller's workload -- and given his body type, he could see the high-leverage touches near the goal line -- there's a chance Miller's overvalued in fantasy football.
On the flip side of this argument, you've got Carlos Hyde. As I said earlier with Pierre Garcon, the 49ers probably won't be very good, and that'll probably hurt Hyde both in the volume and touchdown department. With that being said, Hyde has been the best running back on his team in terms of Success Rate every year he's been in the league, and just last season, only 10 running backs had more top-24 PPR performances and only 7 had more top-12 ones (excluding Week 17). Hyde missed a pair of games during the fantasy season, too, and that still happened.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan will fit his offense around the skillset of his personnel. We saw him do that in Cleveland in 2014, as the team ran for five more touchdowns than they threw for. (With Brian Hoyer under center.) Granted, the Browns were fortunate to have a much better defense that created positive game scripts.
If Shanahan does indeed mold his offense around his studs -- and there's no reason to think he won't -- then Hyde will be a key feature. He's already dominating camp, too.