Why This Is Bold: Leonard Fournette was the fourth-overall pick in this year's NFL Draft and is being selected 11 running back spots ahead of Dalvin Cook in fantasy football drafts.

Why This Will Happen: I don't really doubt Fournette's ability, but we have to be somewhat skeptical about his ceiling in the Jaguars offense in Year 1. He should see a lot of volume, but his upside could be capped by the offense not being very good (fewer touchdowns), as well as negative game scripts (fewer receptions). If things get out of hand, pass-catcher T.J. Yeldon -- who caught the 11th-most passes in the NFL among running backs last year -- could find the field. And negative game scripts could be plentiful if the Jags continue their losing ways, as our chief analyst's algorithm thinks.

Meanwhile, only good things are happening to Dalvin Cook, and he opened up the preseason as the team's starting running back. Some of that has to do with Latavius Murray missing time over the last couple of weeks, but it's also because Cook is, well, good at football.

The Vikings offensive line struggled mightily last year, and the team finished with the worst opponent-adjusted rushing offense in the league as a result. The hope with a bold prediction like this is that the line comes together. And that, with a better line, Sam Bradford will be able to move the ball downfield to create scoring opportunities for Cook. Because even though Bradford finished with the sixth-lowest air yards per attempt last year (among 200-plus attempt passers), he actually had a pretty accurate deep ball, connecting on 48.72% of his throws that travelled 15 or more yards through the air. That was the sixth-highest in the league.

Will the offensive line step up and give Bradford more time to make those deep toss connections? If so, Cook could be in store for a big year.